Garrison Keillor’s 1996 Predictions for the Future of Media
There are many different ways to talk about the future, but few are more self-centered than guessing how the generations of tomorrow may judge you and yours.
Some of Keillor's observations ring true for those of us here in the year 2013: he predicts that the future of air travel will only become more and more cumbersome and he imagines that Americans' growing dissatisfaction with stagnant wages may become an issue. But the vast majority of the piece reads as cranky "get off my lawn" nostalgia. Which is to say, he's romanticizing a past that never existed in the service of bemoaning a future that will never arrive. He begins by calling contemporary culture "trash" (being careful to clarify that the New York Times doesn't qualify as such) and pretty much goes downhill on the future of humanity from there.
But it's his vision of the media landscape of the future that's most interesting to me. Maybe because in many ways he didn't go far enough (only 1,000 movies available on the Internet?) and bizarrely longs for some antiquated version of celebrity that he implies is somehow more pure. But his dominant fear — that the way we consume media would be rapidly changing into the 21st century — was one prophecy fully realized. It's just up to those of us living in "the future" to decide whether any of those changes are a good thing.
Even just holding this 1996 issue of The New York Times Magazine in my hand makes me acutely aware of how much has changed in the world of publishing since then. The magazine is thick at 216 pages and bursting at the seams with slick colorful ads — a sign of healthy profits for any media outlet in the mid-90s. But as more and more eyeballs (and ad dollars) have shifted to the digital realm, it's hard to judge a mag by its deadtree count.
Keillor writes about the death of the newspaper and frustrations with getting Internet images to load:
People are going to miss it a lot — they'll think: What a wonderful thing a newspaper was! You opened it and there it was, you didn't have to wait three minutes for the art to download, and when your wife said, "Give me a section," you did.
Of course, few Americans in the year 2013 are waiting three minutes for an image to load online but I personally identify with those who would stubbornly cling to something like the deadtree Sunday Times; something most easily enjoyed (and more importantly shared) over a cup of coffee with some pulp and ink on your fingers. You have no idea how much it pains me to identify with Mr. Guy Noir himself in this case.
Later in the piece Keillor romanticizes the celebrity of the past — the "real" ones — like Frank Sinatra. He worries that in the future we won't have any common language with which to talk around the water cooler or the dinner table. And Keillor shudders to think about the overwhelming amount of media (10,000 CDs on the Internet, oh my!) future generations will have at their disposal:
People will feel nostalgia for celebrities, real ones, like there used to be back when there were three TV networks and Americans watched the same shows at the same time and talked about them the next day at work. Television was common currency. Sunday afternoons you watched the NFL game with your dad on the couch and then you went to the table and ate pot roast and mashed potatoes. Everybody else did the same thing.
Every American knew Sinatra by sight and by voice, but when you scattered the audience among 200 cable-TV channels and 1,000 movies you could watch on the Internet and 10,000 CDs you could download, there weren't many true celebrities anymore. People will miss them. There will be new celebrities, thousands of them, but not many people will know who they are.
Like I mentioned, I share some of Keillor's strange nostalgic notions about deadtrees and sharing a newspaper over breakfast. But what's most interesting to me is not so much his premature nostalgia for 1996 but his rather stereotypical nostalgia for the 1950s. For a man whose art has focused almost exclusively on the idyllic past that never was, I suppose this makes perfect sense.
NYTimes.com doesn't seem to have the article digitized but you can read the piece in its entirety at Deseret News. Amy Crehore's 1996 oil painting "Nostalgia Man" appeared alongside Keillor's original article and is republished here with permission.A woebegone tribute to the ending of an era
This post originally appeared at Smithsonian.com.